Support for Trump and Biden based on polling following the first presidential debate of 2024

Source: Author's calculations using publicly available data from various polls.

Note: All polls listed test two-way rather than multi-candidate races based on samples of registered voters rather than “likely” voters. At this time, it is hard to know which independent and third-party candidates will be on the ballot in a significant number of states, and likely voter screens based on past voter behavior may distort this year’s results.

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