Support for Trump and Biden based on polling following the first presidential debate of 2024

Support for Trump and Biden based on polling following the first presidential debate of 2024, trump leads in all polls

Source: Author's calculations using publicly available data from various polls.

Note: All polls listed test two-way rather than multi-candidate races based on samples of registered voters rather than “likely” voters. At this time, it is hard to know which independent and third-party candidates will be on the ballot in a significant number of states, and likely voter screens based on past voter behavior may distort this year’s results.

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