Most governor's races look to be swinging well to the left in 2026

The projected swing between a state's election margin in its previous governor's race and the average polling margin in its 2026 governor's race

Data as of Oct. 9, 2026, at 1 PM ET. The polling average is weighted according to each poll's quality, sample size, recency, and partisan lean. The following states are excluded due to total lack of public polling: Colorado, Hawaii, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Wyoming. Alaska, which has polling, is excluded because the polling average covers only the first round of ranked-choice voting.
Chart: Andrew ManganSource: Silver Bulletin; Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections