Figure 2

Main Street vs. All U.S. Businesses and Real GDP

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Source: PYMNTS Intelligence; BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages; Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Index: 2007 Q1 = 100. Actual data through September 2025

Main Street Index and All U.S. Businesses: actual through Q3 2025; shaded area shows model projections for Q4 2025 onward. Real GDP: Bureau of Economic Analysis, chained 2017 dollars, actual through Q3 2025. All series rebased to 2007 Q1 = 100.