Bar chart showing how the partisan lean of the House's tipping point seat has decreased since 1996 and how it could reach a historical low in 2022.
*The "tipping-point" House seat is the seat that theoretically would be the decisive 218th seat for a party to win the majority.

Partisan lean is the average margin difference between how a state or district votes and how the country votes overall. This version of partisan lean, meant to be used for congressional and gubernatorial elections, is calculated as 50 percent the state or district’s lean relative to the nation in the most recent presidential election, 25 percent its relative lean in the second-most-recent presidential election and 25 percent a custom state-legislative lean.

Our 2022 projection is based on the range of possible outcomes for the four states that have not yet passed congressional district maps as of March 30, 2022, at 5 p.m. Eastern.