A higher pay growth 'delta' is associated with higher future recruitment and retention, but at higher cost

Forecast of postgraduate ITT recruitment compared to target in 2027/28 under different scenarios

Note: Baseline scenario assumes that teacher pay growth matches average earnings growth each year, bursaries and early career payments are fixed at 2024/25 levels and there are no other policy influences on recruitment or retention. Other scenarios represent different percentage point increases ('deltas') in teacher pay over time, over and above the level of average earnings growth. Total additional policy cost relative to the baseline is shown in brackets. Values above 200% have been top-coded to 200%.
Source: NFER teacher pay forecast and simulation modelDownload imageCreated with Datawrapper