First-round madness is less likely this year

Distribution of average first-round NCAA men's tournament win probabilities by seed, for the 2025 field (based on simulated odds) and the historical average since 1985

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Averages for 2025 seeds that contain play-ins are weighted by each team's chance of making the Round of 64.

Chart: Neil PaineSource: Sports-Reference/CBB, Neil's SubstackGet the dataCreated with Datawrapper