Figure 1: SBIR's Heaviest Repeat Winners Convert into DOD Procurement at Higher Rates

Share of firms winning at least one DOD contract of $50,000 or more, excluding SBIR awards, within five years of their first dated SBIR award

Note: Data pulled from 10,280 firms (contract records begin 1995; May 2026 pull). Contracts flagged SBIR/Small Business Technology Transfer excluded. Cohorts: 1,708 firms (3–9 Phase II awards), 574 (10–49), 69 (50+). The gap widens slightly when restricted to firms whose window falls fully inside the contract record. SBIR.gov award dates begin in 2003, so windows run from each firm’s first dated award; restricting both groups to firms first dated in 2003–04 gives 75 percent against 39 percent.
Source: Authors’ analysis of SBIR.gov; USAspending.gov records; and DOD SBIR panel, FY 1983–2025.