A distribution of simulated possible outcomes. The median estimated outcome is 18,000 AI chips smuggled to China per year, with a 95 percent confidence interval of 1,600 to 200,000. This distribution was generated using Monte Carlo simulations: 10 million simulations were run, each modeling a different combination of key parameters influencing the success of a smuggling operation. For example, how many chips could be diverted by a cloud provider each year without rousing suspicion?