Industry mix doesn't explain purple metros' outperformance

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Note: Predicted growth calculated using a shift-share analysis of each metro group's supersector composition, applying all-metro employment growth in each industry supersector to each group’s September 2024 industry mix. Not seasonally adjusted; September 2024-September 2026 (2026 figures are preliminary). Metros are classified by the 2024 Trump-Harris vote margin: Very = 10+ points, Lean = 3-10 points, Purple = within 3 points. Alaska is excluded.

Source: Original calculations by authors using BLS SAE and Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.