Most superforecasters think it is unlikely that AGI will be developed in the next few decades

Probability that Nick Bostrom believes AGI exists, superforecaster predictions

Red line shows averaged predictions of 31 respondents. Grey lines show individual predictions. Respondents were asked to give probabilities for 2030, 2050, and 2100. Probability distributions were fitted based on these responses.
Chart: Will Henshall for TIME Source: Forecasting Research Institute
TIME