Graph 5: Population Growth (%)
Note: Covariates include Employment Share, Tax Share, Technology Share, Economic Freedom Index, Educational Attainment (High School Graduate or Higher) and House Price Index. Donor weights: NY (55%), TX (27%), NM (12%), OR (7%). Pre-treatment RMSPE = 0.27. Treatment year is 2021. Permutation placebo testing reveals negative and significant effects for California relative to its synthetic control in 2023 and 2024, with standardized empirical p-values of 0.08 for both periods. Sources: Fraser Institute, FRED, BEA, FHFA, and U.S. Census Bureau.