pHIT timing by state

Depending on past levels of natural infection as well as anticipated vaccine uptake, estimated pHIT date is expected to vary across the US
Scenario: Optimistic vaccination, base case run rate1

Some states with lower estimated levels of past natural infection will require very high vaccine uptake to reach pHIT in 2021
Map: 1. Average daily detected cases during the past 30 days is assumed to be the future average number of daily detected cases