Higher AI exposure is associated with weaker employment outcomes

Recreation of Figure 10 from Graduating into Disruption (Census CES 26-56, 2026).
Bachelor’s majors · Adjusted change, 2024 vs. 2022.

Higher AI exposure is associated with weaker employment outcomes. Employment change relative to the overall trend (percentage points). Each bubble represents one of 142 bachelor’s majors. Higher exposure is associated with weaker relative outcomes; individual majors vary.

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Outcome zero = the overall trend across majors. Bubble size = number of graduates. Employment in the first quarter after graduation. AI exposure is standardized (0 = average). Recreated from rounded Table A3 values.

Chart: Phil Hill | On EdTechSource: Orr, Tucker & Warren (2026), Table A3Download image