Tech or nature?

Estimates of how much we will be able to scale-up carbon removal tech vary widely.

Direct air capture and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage could produce permanent removals that are not at risk from wildfires like trees are - but we should not rely on them entirely. Conservative estimates of their potential suggest the two technologies combined could only produce a fifth of the removals we will need.

Figures in GtCO2/year. Hover for highlights.

* Calculated using average figures from Working Group III's AR6 Category 1 pathways. See Summary for Policymakers p.24

All potentials estimates taken from Fuss et al 2018, bar the upper estimate for afforestation which is from IPCC Working Group III's AR6 Chapter 7 pp.49-50. Current removals for DAC & BECCS are from the most recent IEA tracking reports, while the afforestation figure is from Harris et al 2021.
Chart: Bertie Harrison-Broninski Source: IEA, IPCC, Fuss et al 2018, Harris et al 2021 Embed