Figure 6: Social Security Cash-Flow Balance Under Alternative Inflation and Stagflation Scenarios, 2025–2099

% of Taxable Payroll

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The Cato Institute Social Security Model
'Social Security' refers to the OASI program. Baseline assumes 2.4% average annual CPI-W growth. Alternative inflation scenarios assume 2.9% and 3.4% CPI-W growth. The stagflation scenario replicates the historical CPI-W and AWI trajectories from 1973–1982, applied to the period 2032–2041, combined with an assumed 1 percentage point annual decline in employment over that period