What each rater's ratings imply for control of the Senate

Simulated Democratic seat totals from final Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball ratings

Each rater's labels (Cook: Oct. 30, Inside Elections: Oct. 29, Sabato: Nov. 2) are converted to win probabilities using that rater's own record for the same label one day before the 2010-2022 midterms (president's party = in-party). 20,000 simulations with a shared national error (0.73 on the logit scale) on Likely, Lean and Toss-up seats. Inside Elections tilts: Senate tilts use the Lean rate moved 30% toward Toss-up. Senate totals include the 34 Democratic seats not up this year.
Source: FiftyPlusOneGet the data