Difference between expected wins calculated from Pythagorean expectation and actual wins.

Updated: End of 2025-26

Pythagorean expectation (Pythag) is an estimated winning percentage calculated by points scored and conceded.

Conceptually, this is the "true" level of the team and so when actual wins (Wins) deviate significantly from Pythagorean wins (ΠW), we should expect convergence in the short term (within the season) and regression to the mean in the medium term (next season). This deviation is usually attributed to good fortune (Luck).
Chart: Stats Drop p/b Maroon ObserverSource: Subscribe hereGet the dataDownload image