Rate Cuts Can Trigger When Revenues Are Declining

Real income tax revenue per capita declines, but rates cuts are still triggered in 2027 and 2034, in a scenario where the country enters a mild recession

Note: Mild recession scenario involves a 7.5% decline in revenue in 2027. Growth is otherwise at the average real rate of growth since the 2013 reforms. Initial revenue reductions through 2026 due to existing phased rate cuts.
Source: State statutes; state revenue data; author's calculations. Download imageCreated with Datawrapper