Data Brief

Probabilities of success in oncology clinical trials (2005–2015)

Percentage of oncology drug candidates that advanced at each stage of development — from Phase 1 to Phase 2, Phase 2 to Phase 3, Phase 3 to regulatory approval, and the overall likelihood of approval from Phase 1. Data calculated using a rolling three-year window.

Data based on more than 400,000 clinical trial records from 21,143 compounds studied between 2000 and 2015. For oncology, the likelihood of approval from Phase 1 was only 3.4% — considerably lower than vaccines (33.4%).
Chart: Asimov PressSource: Wong C.H. et al.Get the data