Projected Population Growth vs Prison Growth, 2022 to 2031

Scenario M1F1 is the most optimistic population projection, scenario M2F2 is a moderate projection, while scenario M3F2 is the most pessimistic.

2022 population figures are based on preliminary data from the 2022 Census. Population figures for 2031 are based on projections calculated by the CSO. Scenario 1 (M1F1) is based on a Total Fertility Rate of 1.8 and an annual net inward migration of 30,000 people. Scenario 2 (M2F2) is based on a declining fertility rate and an annual net inward migration of 20,000 people while scenario 3 (M3F2) assumes annual net inward migration of 10,000 and a declining fertility rate. Prison capacity for 2022 is based on the capacity on 3rd April 2022. The projection prison capacity in 2030 is based on the 8th August 2024 prison capacity (4,514) when early announcement of an additional 1,100 spaces by 2030 was made by Minister McEntee.
Chart: Irish Penal Abolition NetworkSource: Central Statistics OfficeGet the dataCreated with Datawrapper