CPI's uncertainty band often crosses the 0.2% benchmark

Annual median one-month CPI-U change and approximate 95% sampling interval, not seasonally adjusted, 2019–2025.

A line chart shows each year's median one-month CPI-U change from 2019 through 2025, with shaded approximate 95% price-sampling intervals and a dotted 0.2% benchmark. The uncertainty band crosses or touches the benchmark in 2019, 2020, 2024, and 2025, complicating a simple good-or-bad classification.

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Shading equals the annual median change plus or minus two median standard errors. The 0.2% line is a rule of thumb, not an official CPI target; the Fed targets 2% annual PCE inflation.

Chart: American MetricsSource: U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsGet the dataEmbed Download imageCreated with Datawrapper