S&P 500 returns in the 3 months prior to US presidential elections
When combined, market performance has “predicted” 20 of the last 24 elections. Since 1928, in the three months leading up to an election whenever the S&P 500 index was positive the incumbent party remained in control of the White House 80 percent of the time. In contrast, when the market was lower during the three months before an election, the incumbent party lost the election eight of the last nine times.
| November 3, 2020 | Joe Biden (Dem) | 2.3% | Lost | No |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 8, 2016 | Donald Trump (Rep) | −2.3% | Lost | Yes |
| November 6, 2012 | Barack Obama (Dem) | 1.9% | Won | Yes |
| November 4, 2008 | Barack Obama (Dem) | −24.8% | Lost | Yes |
| November 2, 2004 | George W. Bush (Rep) | 2.8% | Won | Yes |
| November 7, 2000 | George W. Bush (Rep) | −3.4% | Lost | Yes |
| November 5, 1996 | Bill Clinton (Dem) | 6.7% | Won | Yes |
| November 3, 1992 | Bill Clinton (Dem) | −0.4% | Lost | Yes |
| November 8, 1988 | George H.W. Bush (Rep) | 2.8% | Won | Yes |
| November 6, 1984 | Ronald Reagan (Rep) | 3.6% | Won | Yes |
| November 4, 1980 | Ronald Reagan (Rep) | 6.9% | Lost | No |
| November 2, 1976 | Jimmy Carter (Dem) | −1% | Lost | Yes |
| November 7, 1972 | Richard Nixon (Rep) | 3% | Won | Yes |
| November 5, 1968 | Richard Nixon (Rep) | 6% | Lost | No |
| November 3, 1964 | Lyndon Johnson (Dem) | 3.9% | Won | Yes |
| November 8, 1960 | John F. Kennedy (Dem) | −1.3% | Lost | Yes |
| November 6, 1956 | Dwight D. Eisenhower (Rep) | −3.2% | Won | No |
| November 4, 1952 | Dwight D. Eisenhower (Rep) | −3.3% | Lost | Yes |
| November 2, 1948 | Harry Truman (Dem) | 5.4% | Won | Yes |
| November 7, 1944 | Franklin Roosevelt (Dem) | 2.3% | Won | Yes |
| November 5, 1940 | Franklin Roosevelt (Dem) | 9.7% | Won | Yes |
| November 3, 1936 | Franklin Roosevelt (Dem) | 7.9% | Won | Yes |
| November 8, 1932 | Franklin Roosevelt (Dem) | −2.6% | Lost | Yes |
| November 6, 1928 | Herbert Hoover (Rep) | 13.6% | Won | Yes |
