Harris has a much better shot at winning the election and the battleground states than Biden did
Probability that the Democratic presidential candidate will win nationally and in the likeliest tipping point states, and the difference between those two values
| National | 26.9% | 56.7% | +29.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | 28.4% | 59.1% | +30.7% |
| Michigan | 42.3% | 66.5% | +24.2% |
| Wisconsin | 38.2% | 63.8% | +25.6% |
| Georgia | 21.3% | 44.6% | +23.3% |
| Arizona | 16.2% | 48.4% | +32.2% |
| North Carolina | 13.7% | 39.3% | +25.6% |
| Nevada | 28.7% | 53.7% | +25.0% |
| Virginia | 68.7% | 81.7% | +13.0% |
| Florida | 8.3% | 22.8% | +14.5% |
| New Hampshire | 61.8% | 76.4% | +14.6% |
| Texas | 5.1% | 15.8% | +10.7% |
| Minnesota | 65.2% | 90.9% | +25.7% |
