Wage-ranked selection better accommodates the rising demand for AI-related H-1B workers than random lottery

Share of H-1B workers with an AI-related job by fiscal year.
Actual H-1B visa approvals under random lottery vs simulated approvals under wage-ranked selection

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Note: New H-1Bs in AI for FY2025 and FY2026 are projected using growth rate of AI-related LCAs. FY2026 annual LCA count is estimated from first quarter's data.

Source: Author's calculations using Bloomberg H-1B FOIA data, DOL Labor Conditions Application data, Census American Community Survey, and BEA Regional Price Parities.