How Lula and Flávio polled among different voter groups

First-round voting intentions, Datafolha survey of 29 September–1 October 2026 (%)

Bar chart comparing Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro’s voting intentions among three groups. Lula led by 56% to 26% among Bolsa Família households. Flávio led by 52% to 26% among evangelicals. Among voters identifying with neither political camp, Flávio had 25% and Lula 24%. Other candidates and responses are omitted.

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Only Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are shown; other candidates and responses are omitted. ‘Neither petista nor bolsonarista’ refers to voters who identified with neither political camp.

Chart: Stanton GeyerSource: Datafolha, 29 September–1 October 2026.