b. Dollar, oil prices, and expected federal funds rate, Jan 2019–Dec 2025

EM = emerging markets
Notes: For the dollar index, 2006 = 100 and a rise is a dollar appreciation.
Source: Average policy rates are computed using the Mendoza-Fernández and Pelin dataset. The nominal US dollar index for advanced economies (DTWEXAFEGS) and European Brent oil prices (DCOILBRENTEU) are from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED). Expectations for the federal funds rate are proxied by expectations of short-term interest rates 12 months ahead from Consensus Economics.Download image