Data are in U.S. dollars at 2010 prices and market exchange rates. Shaded area indicates forecasts. Trend is assumed to grow at the regression-estimated trend growth rate of 2010-19. Baseline output is based on the baseline estimates and forecasts in January 2021 Global Economic Prospects over 2020-22 and, for 2023-25, is assumed to grow at the rates computed with long-term consensus forecasts surveyed in October 2020. The downside and severe downside scenarios are based on the assumptions of higher caseloads, slower vaccination, as well as widespread financial stress.