Figure 1

US exports to China fell after Trump launched his second trade war in 2025

US exports of goods and services covered by the phase one deal, billions of 2017 dollars, 2009–25

Notes: Product and service categories, as well as the “Total purchase commitment (nominal),” are set out in Annex 6.1 of the Economic and Trade Agreement between the United States of America and the People’s Republic of China. “Projected purchases with no trade wars (real)” are constructed by projecting US exports based on growth of China’s real imports of goods and services covered by the phase one agreement from the world. Services exports in 2025 are estimates.
Source: Constructed by the author with US export data from US Census, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Chinese import data from International Trade Centre (Trade Map) and China's Ministry of Commerce and Chinese Customs. The price deflators are from Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.Download image