How Russia uses nuclear signaling

Researchers identified 282 Russian nuclear signals from autumn 2021 through January 2025. More than half of those signals were categorized as threats and warnings that Western actions could trigger some kind of nuclear escalation. By contrast, just 10 percent of the signals were related to proposed or actual changes to Russia's nuclear doctrine, deployments or arms-control arrangements.

Newsweek grouped and renamed eight original SWP/Peace Research Center Prague categories for clarity; underlying counts are unchanged. The dataset covers Russian nuclear-related statements and actions from the run-up to the full-scale invasion through January 20, 2025.
Source: Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik / Peace Research Center Prague, Russia’s Nuclear Signaling in the War Against Ukraine