A two-by-two matrix classifying superintelligence risk along two axes. The columns represent outlook: Optimistic or Pessimistic. The rows represent continuity: whether superintelligence is an extension of existing socio-technical risks (Continuity) or a fundamentally new kind of risk (Discontinuity). Continuity plus Optimism yields manageable transformation. Continuity plus Pessimism yields systemic harm, but not extinction. Discontinuity plus Optimism yields high risk, but solvable early. Discontinuity plus Pessimism yields high likelihood of irreversible loss of human control or survival.