A comparison of model scenarios from 25 June 2021 with revised scenarios from 9 July 2021. The revised scenarios include an
| Original scenarios 25 June 2021 | Cases | Hospital admissions | ICU admissions | Deaths | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No delta variant | 21,000 | 405 | 55 | 80 | Moderate social mixing, no delta variant |
| Optimistic | 81,000 | 1,530 | 195 | 250 | Moderate social mixing, alpha 27% more transmissible, delta 55% more transmissible than alpha |
| Central 1 | 187,000 | 3,490 | 450 | 545 | Higher social mixing, alpha 27% more transmissible, delta 55% more transmissible than alpha |
| Central 2 | 408,000 | 7,690 | 985 | 1,230 | Moderate social mixing, alpha 27% more transmissible, delta 55% more transmissible than alpha |
| Pessimistic | 682,000 | 12,985 | 1,685 | 2,170 | Higher social mixing, alpha 50% more transmissible, delta 60% more transmissible |
| Revised scenarios 9 July 2021 | Cases | Hospital admissions | ICU admissions | Deaths | |
| Minimal change | 62,000 | 1,185 | 160 | 210 | Minimal additional social mixing, alpha 27% more transmissible, delta 55% more transmissible than alpha |
| Optimistic | 105,000 | 1,985 | 260 | 335 | Moderate social mixing, alpha 27% more transmissible, delta 55% more transmissible than alpha |
| Central 1 | 185,000 | 3,455 | 445 | 550 | Higher social mixing, alpha 27% more transmissible, delta 55% more transmissible than alpha |
| Central 2 | 379,000 | 6,505 | 915 | 1,150 | Moderate social mixing, alpha 27% more transmissible, delta 55% more transmissible than alpha |
| Pessimistic | 566,000 | 10,730 | 1,390 | 1,760 | Higher social mixing, alpha 50% more transmissible, delta 60% more transmissible |
