In red states, independent candidates are improving on Democrats' results

Polls in 2026 Senate races in which a well-known independent candidate faces a Republican and no Democrat, compared with the average results in that state's previous three Senate elections that featured a Democrat

Data is as of Oct. 23, 2026, at 3 PM ET. For Nebraska, the three most recent Senate elections omit the regularly scheduled 2024 race because independent Dan Osborn ran in it as well; instead, the 2024 special election is used.
Chart: Andrew ManganSource: Silver Bulletin; Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections