Figure 7. The correlation between the 2024 vote margin and the net migration rate

Source: Author’s calculations based on “Gross migration file” data, 2018–2023, from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), “SOI Tax Stats - Migration Data” (dataset), last reviewed March 20, 2026, https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-migration-data; John Woolley and Gerhard Peters, “The American Presidency Project” (University of California Santa Barbara, 2024), last updated December 31, 2024, https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/elections/2024.