Harris popular vote margin if historical polling misses were repeated
Average statistical biases (Presidential polls/all polls in midterm years)
−7%
−6%
−5%
−4%
−3%
−2%
−1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
1998
6.6%
2000
5.2%
2002
0.1%
2004
1.6%
2006
2.7%
2008
1.9%
2010
2.4%
2012
5.3%
2014
0%
2016
−0.5%
2018
3.3%
2020
−1.9%
2022
2%
Current popular vote margin
|
Harris popular win(+)/loss(-)
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