Probability of a strong El Niño
Percent chance
Note: Bars show the chance of El Niño (red bars) and ENSO-Neutral (grey bars), provided for 8 upcoming, overlapping 3-month seasons (each letter represents a month, for example F = February). The color shading within the bars indicates the chances of different categories of El Niño — neutral (-0.5°C ≤ Index < 0.5°C), weak (0.5°C ≤ Index < 1.0°C), moderate (1.0°C ≤ Index < 1.5°C), strong (1.5°C ≤ Index < 2.0°C) and very strong (Index ≥ 2.0°C). Data issued on June 2026.
