New managers can't reclaim a team's lost original potential

Expected (based on Elo ratings) and actual winning percentages over the next month and beyond for teams who changed managers during a full season since 1994

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Teams had to change managers before their 100th game and not have more than two managers during the season in question.

Chart: Neil PaineSource: Neil's Substack, Lahman DBGet the dataCreated with Datawrapper