Difference between expected winning percentage calculated from Pythagorean expectation and actual winning percentage.

Updated: Week 18, 2026

Pythagorean expectation (Pythag) is an estimated winning percentage calculated by points scored and conceded.

Conceptually, this is the "true" level of the team and so when actual winning percentage (Actual) deviates significantly from Pythagorean expectation (Pythag), we should expect convergence in the short term (within the season) and regression to the mean in the medium term (next season).

This deviation is usually attributed as good fortune. Luck here is the difference in actual winning percentage and Pythagorean expectation (multiplied by 100). Gap is the difference in the number of actual and Pythagorean wins.
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