Quarterly on-flows onto incapacity benefit payments

The grey shaded area shows people who after April 2017 are categorised as having some limitations (LCW/WRAG), but (unless they have transitional protection) do not receive any additional payments.

The chart shows the number of initial WCAs that result in incapacity-related payments. The results are described in the accompanying blog post at the Inequalities substack.
Acronyms: 'WCA' = Work Capability Assessment; 'UC'=Universal Credit; 'ESA'=Employment & Support Allowance; 'LCW'=UC Limited Capability for Work group; 'WRAG'=ESA Work-Related Activity Group; 'LCWRA'=UC Limited Capability for Work-Related Activity group.
Notes from the original OBR chart: Figures include the three months up to and including the month referenced. Onflows only captures initial WCA assessments. UC LCW and LCWRA initial onflows are estimated based on the split of initial and repeat assessments in third party assessment provider data, with a one–month lag. Source: DWP, OBR.
Chart: Ben Geiger, 10th October 2024Source: My re-drawing of Chart 3.4 from the OBR 2024 Welfare Trends ReportGet the dataCreated with Datawrapper