Denny needs to drive the No. 11's wheels off... and then get help

Advancement probabilties by scenario for Denny Hamlin, depending on how he finishes over the next two races

Based on 10,000 simulations of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs. Simulations use track type-specific ratings to estimate each driver's odds of finishing in each position for each race, then track the standings throughout each simulation.

Note: Results marked with a 100.0% or 0.0% chance happened either more than 9,994 times or less than 5 times in 10,000 simulations.
Chart: Neil PaineSource: Racing-Reference.infoCreated with Datawrapper