Improving the retention rate of teachers by 1pp would have a considerable positive impact on teacher supply by 2027/28

Recruitment to postgraduate ITT compared to target

Note: Baseline scenario assumes that teacher pay growth matches average earnings growth each year, bursaries and early career payments are fixed at 2024/25 levels and there are no other policy influences on recruitment or retention. Another scenario considers the impact of an improvement in retention due to non-financial measures.
Source: NFER teacher pay forecast and simulation modelDownload imageCreated with Datawrapper