Debt-to-GDP Implied by Bessent vs CBO Growth Forecasts

Federal debt held by the public as a percentage of GDP

The debt-to-GDP ratio rises from 76 percent in 2016 to 99 percent in 2025. Bessent's real GDP growth projection stabilizes the debt-to-GDP ratio at 99 percent by 2030. The CBO real GDP growth projection raises the debt-to-GDP ratio to 108 percent by 2030.

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The CBO-implied forecast is CBO's published February 2026 projection. The Bessent-implied forecast replaces the CBO's real GDP growth rate with 3 percent to calculate debt-to-GDP, with revenues rising in proportion to GDP and spending following CBO's path.

Chart: Benn Steil and Yuma SchusterSource: Congressional Budget Office (CBO), authors' calculations