Before the November 2020 presidential election, there were several methods of estimating the potential results. A polling average from 538.com indicated Democratic nominee Joe Biden was leading Republican incumbent Donald Trump by more than 8 percentage points. In the USC Dornsife Daybreak Poll, asking voters how they personally intended to vote indicated Biden would win by more than 9 points. But tapping into the wisdom of crowds by asking people in the same poll how they thought others in their social circle, or in their state, would vote delivered lower, more accurate estimates.