| Challenge | Potential impact | Action needed | Indicative revenue equivalent | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Short term (2 years) | Transition from emergency support funding | Ensure credit losses do not reach peaks predicted in 2020 | Standardized approaches and collaboration to minimize solvency issues and further support businesses | €20 billion in 2022 and 2023 | |
| Collaboration with EU Next Generation fund | Complementary financing and cross-sell | Lead on coinvesting in recovery | €20 billion | ||
| Medium term (5 years) | Financing the carbon transition | Substitution; new opportunities including in savings and investment | Finding the opportunities, leading on the change agenda | €25-50 billion | |
| Overcapacity and rationalization | Cost reduction | Consolidation and radical cost out | €30 billion | ||
| Longer term (>5 years) | Enabling the digital economy | Retail and SME flows shifting to emerging ecosystems | Banking as a service partnerships, closing the customer service gap, Beyond Banking offerings | €40 billion | |
| Role in the Capital Markets Union | Shift from lending to advisory | Strengthening corporate finance advisory, moving to co-investment model | €15-20 billion | ||
| New financial infrastructure | Deposit and payments at risk; efficiency opportunities | Design and build the solution — expand the positive role of banks | €10-25+ billion | ||
| Total with overlap removed | €160 billion ~25% of revenue today (€645 billion) | ||||
