The Senate leans Republican

Even in a 2018-esque blue wave (D+7.3), the Senate would still lean Republican by a few points

* = elected GOP incumbent, boosting the blue wave baseline margin by three percentage points. Baseline in a 2018-esque blue wave was calculated as the state’s margin of victory in 2024, minus the national margin of victory in 2024, plus the generic ballot margin of victory in 2018.
Chart: Lakshya Jain/The ArgumentSource: Split Ticket, AP