Covid hospitalisation vs Sage 'likely' scenarios, Sep 21

Grey lines indicate published Sage scenarios for R=1.1 and R=1.5. Red line shows actual

SPI-M described the above scenarios (R=1.1, R=1.5) as "an envelope which contains the likely epidemic trajectory over the next couple of months". (SPI-M consensus statement, 14 Sep). Values interpolated via scan of Fig1.

Chart: The Spectator (JY7Ao) Get the data