Dory's delay forecasts more accurate at every lead time

CRPS (minutes, lower is better) by lead time (hours), for the arrival delay forecast. At 23–24 hours out, Dory is on average as skillful as the airline's own estimate about 6 hours out and CatBoost about 11 hours out.DelayArrivalDeparture

Airline: its posted estimate, with the spread of airline estimates' errors. Each hour is plotted at its middle. 17 US carriers, May 8 – June 18, 2026.
Source: AerologyGet the data