More progressives have won primaries in the first half of 2026 than ran in 2024

Number and win rate of non-incumbent candidates endorsed by select progressive groups in Democratic congressional and gubernatorial primaries since 2018

*2026 data includes primaries held through June 30.
† 2018 and 2020 data includes only candidates in open races with no incumbent running.
Win rate includes any candidate who won their partisan primary or advanced to the general election. In California, the top two primary finishers, regardless of party, advance to the general election. FiveThirtyEight did not track endorsements from the Working Families Party from 2020-2022, the Congressional Progressive Caucus from 2018-2022, the Sunrise Movement from 2018-2020, Elizabeth Warren from 2020-2024, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in 2018 or 2024.
Source: FiveThirtyEight, X, Justice Democrats, Indivisible, Sunrise Movement, Working Families Party, Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC, news reports, state election resultsGet the data