In general, red states shifted farther left than blue states did

The leftward shift between a state's margin in the 2024 presidential election and its margin in its 2026 Senate race, with states that Donald Trump won by 10 or more points marked in red, states that Kamala Harris won by the same margin marked in blue, and states in between marked in gray

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Data as of Nov. 6, 2026, at 4 PM ET. Only states with more than 95% of the estimated vote reporting are shown. The "national environment" reflects The New York Times' shift in the House popular vote between 2024 and its estimate for 2026.

Chart: Andrew ManganSource: New York Times; Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections