3 – Iran's external position: a net creditor in all scenarios

% of GDP – NIIP (Net International Investment Position) is net foreign wealth. NENDI (NIIP Excluding Non-Defaultable Instruments) is net foreign debt.

–50% NIIP: hypothetical thresholds beyond which external-crisis risk rises if rise is driven by the net-debt component. See: Catão & Milesi-Ferretti (2014), Journal of International Economics. 2026 Iranian foreign assets assumed to be $90 billion based midpoint of estimates range. The growth path of the asset stock assumes a conservative effective saving rate of ~5% of oil export revenue.
Chart: Dominik A. Leusder for Bourse & Bazaar FoundationSource: Author's projections; UNCTAD (FDI), World Bank (CMO, debt, GEP), IMF WEO (GDP); Catão & Milesi-Ferretti (2014); IEA; Rystad EnergyCreated with Datawrapper