The disappearance of competitive districts will continue in 2022
Number of House seats for each party since 1996, according to FiveThirtyEight's partisan lean
Stacked bar chart showing how highly competitive seats in the House have declined since 1996.
Partisan lean is the average margin difference between how a state or district votes and how the country votes overall. This version of partisan lean, meant to be used for congressional and gubernatorial elections, is calculated as 50 percent the state or district’s lean relative to the nation in the most recent presidential election, 25 percent its relative lean in the second-most-recent presidential election and 25 percent a custom state-legislative lean.
Our 2022 projection is based on the likeliest outcome for the four states that have not yet passed congressional maps as of March 30, 2022, at 5 p.m. Eastern.